TL;DR
Since 1871 the US has had roughly 25 distinct bull markets averaging 4.2 years and 90% real return, and 25 bear markets averaging 1.4 years and -32% real return. Bulls happen more often and last longer than bears, by a substantial margin.
In short
Bears are sharp and painful; bulls are gradual and long. That asymmetry is why patience pays — you're playing in the favourable distribution as long as you stay invested. Cataloguing them shows the pattern across every major economic regime.
We're working on a full deep-dive for this article — including historical data, charts, and worked examples. In the meantime, you can run a free simulation to explore the underlying numbers yourself.
Frequently asked questions
- What's the longest bull market in history?
- 1949–1968 in real terms (roughly 19 years). 2009–2020 was nominally longer but interrupted by several large corrections.
- Are bear markets predictable?
- No useful signals exist for timing entries and exits. CAPE-based valuation has weak predictive power over multi-year windows but is unreliable for individual decisions.
Stress-test your own FIRE plan
FIRE Wealth OS runs your savings rate and expenses against every historical market starting point since 1871. Free to use, no card required.